Relatório Política Fiscal IbMacro BH

FINAL CONCLUSION AND RESULTS PROJECT: Estimation of the Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) DATA: 961 households with Income, Consumption, and Gender (head) METHOD: OLS Regression | Stata + R | MLE Distribution Fitting --- MAIN FINDINGS --- 1. ESTIMATED MPC = 0.5934 For every additional ₹1 of income, households spend approximately ₹0.59 on consumption and save the remaining ₹0.41. The estimate is highly statistically significant (t = 37.20, p < 0.001). The 95% confidence interval is [0.562, 0.625], which is narrow, indicating HIGH PRECISION of the estimate. 2. GENDER EFFECT = ₹4,912 (NOT SIGNIFICANT) Male-headed households consume about ₹4,912 more than female-headed households after controlling for income. However, this effect is statistically insignificant (t = 0.83, p = 0.405), consistent with the broader empirical literature which finds gender to be a weak predictor of consumption once income is controlled for. 3. MODEL FIT: R-squared = 0.5917 Income alone explains ~59% of the variation in household consumption, which is strong for cross-sectional microdata. 4. DISTRIBUTION FITTING: Both Log-normal and Gamma were fitted to income via MLE. The Log-normal distribution is preferred based on lower AIC, BIC, KS statistic, and Anderson-Darling statistic. This aligns with Gibrat's Law and the empirical income distribution literature. 5. ALL DIAGNOSTIC TESTS PASSED: - Breusch-Pagan (heteroskedasticity): p = 0.264 -> No heteroskedasticity - Shapiro-Wilk (normality of residuals): p = 0.221 -> Residuals are normal - Ramsey RESET (misspecification): p = 0.604 -> Model is well-specified OLS assumptions are satisfied. Results are reliable and unbiased. 6. LITERATURE COMPARISON: Our MPC of 0.593 is consistent with the empirical range of 0.35-0.90 reported in the literature (Parker et al., 2013; Boehm et al., 2025; Kosar & Melcangi, 2025). It falls within the standard range for households with moderate liquidity constraints. CONCLUSION: The modified Keynesian consumption function fits the data well. Income is the primary and statistically significant driver of consumption. The MPC of ~0.59 implies a fiscal multiplier greater than 1 (1/(1-MPC) ≈ 2.44), suggesting that income-support fiscal policies would have a substantial stimulative effect on aggregate demand in this household sample. Gender plays no significant independent role in consumption once income is accounted for, consistent with prior microeconomic evidence.

Analisis menggunakan data Indeks 2024 dengan model SAW dan WP untuk melihat apakah sama antara perhitungan SAW dan WP dengan nilai IDM. Selain itu, melihat jumlah terjadinya match dan missmatch.

Simulación de muestras en R