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How Field Size Shapes the Market Favourite’s Chances in Horse Racing
This chart uses 149,000 horse race starts from UK and Irish racing in 2020, sourced from Kaggle. Each row is one horse in one race. The market favourite is identified by the isFav flag, derived from Betfair Starting Price odds. Implied win probability is calculated as 1 / BSP odds, it represents what the betting market believes the favourite’s chance of winning is.