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O'Quigley's beta-binomial stochastic model of the Lucy Letby roster chart
This analysis shows that the O'Quigley beta-binomial model does not fit well to the Letby data. It assumes over-dispersion, but the data exhibits under-dispersion. The correlation or association between collapses and deaths at Countess of Chester and Lucy Letby's presence is real and causal in nature. But the causality is in the reverse direction. The deaths don't follow Lucy Letby, on the contrary, Lucy Letby follows the deaths, due to the many extra shifts she works when the unit is most heavily filled with the highest-risk babies.
Rivers overlapping with deposits (red=fluvial, blue=glacial)
Major rivers (nivaa 1a+2a+3a) overlapping with fluvial and glacial deposits
Popups include info on how many km of river that overlaps with deposits, and overlap with fylke