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A Poisson Look at the NHL 2025-26 Season
Are hockey goals random? Using all 1,312 games of the 2025–26 NHL regular season, I tested whether goals per team follow a Poisson distribution. I estimated the scoring rate with maximum likelihood, checked the fit with a chi-square goodness-of-fit test, and compared home and away scoring. Goals per team matched the Poisson model well (mean ≈ variance, p = 0.061), and home teams held a small edge of 0.13 goals per game. The biggest finding came from where the model failed: it predicted 16.6% of games would be tied after regulation, but 24.8% actually were. That gap shows teams react to the score. I then repeated the analysis on the 2023–24 and 2024–25 seasons. The Poisson model held up every year, and tied games beat the model by 4–8 points every season. Built in R with ggplot2, Plotly and ioslides.