Figure X shows that fuel scarcity in Nigeria has largely been driven by the widening gap between black-market and officially regulated fuel prices, with both scarcity and fuel prices increasing sharply after 2022, indicating growing distortions in the fuel market and a deterioration in fuel availability.

Figure X illustrates the evolution of Nigeria's officially regulated petrol pump price between 1980 and 2024. The figure reveals prolonged periods of price stability during the 1980s and early 1990s, followed by a succession of incremental price adjustments from the mid-1990s onward. The most pronounced change occurs in 2023, when the official pump price increases dramatically following the removal of fuel subsidies. This suggests that fuel-pricing decisions are not purely market-driven but are strongly influenced by political and fiscal considerations. The timing of major price adjustments appears consistent with the political economy argument that governments may delay politically costly reforms until electoral pressures have subsided.

full Annual plats.

Events trend.

Annual |Subsidy payment on Election.

Annual data plot for Political business cycle