Recently Published
Collatz Conjecture Visualizations
The core insight was that all four images are the same mathematical object seen four ways: three are renderings of the reverse (predecessor) tree of the 3n+1 map, and one is a single long orbit. From shared building blocks — a forward orbit function, the predecessor-tree builder, and the "proportional power ratio" mapping — each figure adds its own layout and styling:
Figure 1 (green/red neuron): the predecessor tree under a vectorized Fruchterman–Reingold force layout, with quadratic-Bézier curved edges for the organic loops and the longest root-to-leaf paths highlighted red.
Figure 2 (rainbow fan): a faithful line-for-line port of the Processing "Collatz Tree" sketch — fixed branch geometry, depth-cycled palette, green leaf dots. Deterministic, so essentially an exact match.
Figure 3 (purple/orange lobed tree): the same tree under the force layout to get the graphviz-neato look — central spine, lobes with white gaps, dark-red→plum→orange depth colouring. This one we corrected mid-project after you flagged that my first radial version filled the circle too uniformly.
Figure 4 (polar web): one long orbit (n = 670617279) plotted with θ = index in radians and r = power-ratio base 6, which produces the star/spoke pattern. Also deterministic and near-exact.
Time-series analysis of macroeconomic and financial data sales dynamics in “Grendaria”
Time-Series Econometrics, FAU
Oct 2024 – Feb 2025
• Built a full R Markdown time-series pipeline modelling sales and
GDP-growth dynamics across FDL and ADL specifications, deriving impact,
interim, and long-run multipliers
• Selected and estimated an ARMA(1,3) via AIC/AICc/BIC search; evaluated
accuracy through recursive out-of-sample 4-quarter forecasts (RMSE/MAE/
MAPE) against a naïve benchmark
• Tested stationarity with ADF and KPSS; fit a GARCH volatility model,
diagnosing volatility clustering and a persistence parameter of 0.991 with Ljung–
Box / Shapiro–Wilk residual checks
Empowering Adolescent Girls in Uganda
• Replicated the BRAC ELA cluster-RCT (150 communities;
100 treatment / 50 control; three-wave panel of 5,966 adolescent girls), estimating
Intent-to-Treat effects via OLS ANCOVA with baseline-covariate and branch
fixed-effect controls
• Constructed z-scored empowerment indices; ran balance checks
(two-sample t-tests, standardised mean differences), flagging 5 of 15 imbalanced
baseline covariates; produced a discrepancy report against the published estimates
• Bounded attrition with Lee bounds, clustered SEs at village level, trimmed the
top 1% of expenditure outliers; extended with a Treatment × StillGoing
interaction for heterogeneous treatment effects, deriving conditional effects analytically
• Built a reproducible R Markdown pipeline with reusable functions automating
variable construction, regression output, and tables; added cost-effectiveness
comparisons against the Jóvenes programmes and unconditional cash transfers
Desire and Distribution: Trajectories of Disparities in Two Finnic Nations
Assembled post-war disposable-income series (Finland 1966–2024; Estonia 1990–2024)
and Gini trajectories from OECD, WID, and UNU-WIDER (WIID)
• Diagnosed inclusive vs. top-heavy growth through mean–median divergence; traced
Finland’s U-shaped Gini and Estonia’s post-transition spike to institutional drivers
(progressive taxation, Nokia skill premium, privatisation, flat-tax reform)
• Reconciled Soviet-era data-suppression gaps in the Estonian series
Non-tariff barriers and WTO dispute settlement: EC–Hormones (DS26)
• Analysed a 35-year (1980–2015) panel of US beef exports via difference-in-differences
and event-study OLS, controlling for EU GDP, US beef production, and the US–EU
exchange rate
• Specified event dummies for the 1989 ban, 1998 ruling, and 2009 settlement; found
the ruling insignificant (p = 0.42) while the settlement raised export value by ≈88%,
quantifying the “compliance gap”, with a 44% contraction in EU specialty imports
under retaliation
• Integrated multi-source trade data (USDA FAS, UN COMTRADE, Eurostat
Comext, USITC, World Bank WDI); linked results to Bagwell & Staiger
and Ederington & Ruta
Event Study of Profit Warnings in Finnish Firms
• Replicated and audited Excel-computed market-model parameters (α, β) in R,
reconciling both sets of estimates to the decimal across all 10 OMXH25 firms a
direct reproducibility and code-review check
• Estimated two-way (firm × year) fixed-effects panel regressions of Tobin’s Q on ROA,
size, leverage (unbalanced 24-firm, 127-observation panel; plm), validated with
F-tests, Hausman tests, firm-clustered robust SEs
• Ran a market-model event study of profit warnings: AR, CAR, CAAR
over a [−10, +10] window, with cross-sectional t-tests; delivered a cross-sectional
OLS of CAR on firm size with HC3 robust SEs and residual diagnostics (Shapiro–Wilk)
• Packaged as a reproducible R Markdown / RPubs pipeline regenerating every
table and figure from raw data in one kni