Soccer matches produce a range of statistics that can help us understand team performance. But which statistics are most strongly associated with actually winning a match? We will use logistic regression to investigate whether shots and shots on target are associated with the probability of a team winning.

Expected Goals (xG) is a commonly used metric in soccer analytics that estimates the probability of a shot resulting in a goal. An xG value ranges between 0 and 1. For example, an xG value of 0.10 represents approximately a 10% probability of scoring, while an xG value of 0.70 represents approximately a 70% probability. We will build a simple expected goals model using logistic regression.