Equipo Kappa — Hannia Salvador · Luz Ruiseñor · Andreu Sarreta · Maximiliano Guevara

I recently applied multiple regression analysis to examine what drives arithmetic performance in a sample of 177 participants. Using a model that included sex, teacher stage, math anxiety, self-efficacy, and personality traits, regression helped isolate the key drivers of performance while controlling for overlapping effects. The strongest and most consistent predictor was **self-efficacy**, followed by a smaller but significant effect of sex. Interestingly, math anxiety, personality (neuroticism), and teacher stage were not significant once other factors were controlled for. The model explained about **17–20% of performance variation**, showing how regression can move beyond correlation to identify the most decision-relevant predictors in complex human data. This is a clear example of how regression modeling supports evidence-based decisions by highlighting what truly matters when multiple factors interact in real-world systems.

Research Paper Draft How Family Violence affects outcomes of CPI investigations.

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Dokumen ini menyajikan latihan praktis mengenai pemodelan data deret waktu dengan fokus pada skenario model ARIMA(1,1,1). Melalui simulasi data sebanyak 200 observasi, publikasi ini mendemonstrasikan siklus penuh analisis time series, mulai dari pemeriksaan visual dan uji stasioneritas menggunakan ADF Test, hingga teknik transformasi data melalui proses differencing. Keunggulan dari latihan ini adalah eksplorasi mendalam dalam menentukan kandidat model terbaik menggunakan kombinasi plot ACF/PACF, matriks EACF, dan fungsi auto.arima. Seluruh proses diakhiri dengan evaluasi model melalui perbandingan nilai AIC, memberikan gambaran nyata bagi praktisi data dalam memilih model yang paling efisien dan akurat untuk data yang bersifat stokastik.