Statistical inference is the process of drawing conclusions about a population from sample data, primarily through hypothesis testing involving the null hypothesis (H₀, assuming no effect or difference) and alternative hypothesis (H₁, indicating an effect or difference), while accounting for Type I (false positive, probability α like 0.05) and Type II (false negative, probability β) errors. Common methods include the t-test for comparing means with unknown population standard deviation or small samples, z-test for large samples or known standard deviation, and chi-square test for categorical data to assess goodness-of-fit or independence. Decisions rely on comparing the p-value (probability of observing data as extreme assuming H₀ true) to the significance level α: reject H₀ if p ≤ α (evidence for H₁), otherwise fail to reject, enabling evidence-based generalizations under uncertainty.

Hasil analisis rantai Markov menunjukkan bahwa pasar bersifat aktif dan fluktuatif, dengan transisi yang dominan antara kondisi naik dan turun serta minimnya kondisi stagnan. Meskipun terdapat peluang pemulihan harga dalam jangka pendek, hasil steady state mengindikasikan bahwa risiko penurunan lebih dominan dalam jangka panjang. Oleh karena itu, strategi bisnis yang lebih sesuai adalah pendekatan jangka pendek yang adaptif dengan penekanan pada manajemen risiko, dibandingkan strategi investasi pasif jangka panjang.

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